Grain Express – Blue Line Futures

65
Corn (March)

Fundamentals: March corn futures continued their relief rally yesterday, but the overnight and early morning price action is erasing those gains. There have been rumors that China was in the market for U.S. grain, but that has yet to be confirmed in the daily sales. Yesterday’s export sales report showed net sales of 1,371,400 MT for 2020/2021 were down 18 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Technicals: Our bias is Neutral this morning, not because there isn’t trading opportunity, but because we think we will see wider intraday trading ranges and more day to day gyrations, presenting short term opportunities for traders on both sides of the market. 422 ¼ is still our pivot point which represents trendline support. A break and close below here could trigger additional long liquidation towards 408 ¾-413 ½. This pocket represents a key retracement, and the November 13th lows.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 429-430 ½**, 435 ¾-439½****

Pivot: 422 ¼

Support: 408 ¾-413 ½****, 396-399 ½***

Soybeans (January)

Fundamentals: November soybeans were able to grind higher yesterday on what was mostly relief after selling off so hard in the first half of the week. As with corn, there were rumors that China may have been in the market during that pullback, that has yet to be confirmed. South America has seen beneficial rains develop, which could keep a lid on the market, especially if we do not see better export news. The Bull needs to be fed. Yesterday’s export sales report showed net sales of 406,900 MT for 2020/2021–a marketing-year low–were down 47 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Technicals: As mentioned in the corn section, our bias is Neutral this morning, not because there isn’t trading opportunity, but because we think we will see wider intraday trading ranges and more day to day gyrations, presenting short term opportunities for traders on both sides of the market. The market is attempting a run at technical resistance, 1175-1176, we would look to be sellers against this pocket, with a tight leash. A break above and we would take our small dose of medicine and regroup.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1175-1176***, 1200-1208 ½**

Pivot: 1152-1154 ¾

Support: 1138-1142 ½**, 1114 ¼-1120 ¼****

Chicago Wheat (March)

Technicals: As mentioned in yesterday’s report “We did start putting on some short positions with clients yesterday afternoon (Wednesday), near 590. But we want to be ready, willing, and able to be more aggressive in our pivot pocket, 596 ¾-599 ¼.” Unfortunately, we were not able to get that secondary push to get more aggressive. Though the chart remains vulnerable, shorts may consider locking in a quick gain ahead of the weekend. Support comes in from 574-574 ¾. If you are Bullish, this is a decent risk/reward setup for you. We are near term neutral but remain bearish over the intermediate term.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 608 ¾-611 ¾****, 619 ½-621***

Pivot: 596 ¾-599 ¼

Support: 574-574 ¾**, 563-569 ½****

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