University of Illinois ag economist Scott Irwin thinks U.S. corn acreage could be down at least five million from the nearly 93 million acres in the March prospective plantings report.
“At least five million acres from prevent plant, plus switching to soybeans, due to late planting conditions,” Irwin says.
He says late planting and excess rain could mean “substantially reduced” corn yields this fall, with a national average corn yield of 170 or less-which could push corn prices into the 4.50 to 5.00 range, he says.
“If we lose five million acres and yield drops to 170, that would be a season-average price of about $4.50-and if you lose 10 million acres and have a yield of 170, it could be as high at $5.00 a bushel.”
But Irwin warns that those price forecasts are “definitely guesswork” at this point.