USDA: Farm Sector Profits Forecast To Rise In 2020

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Inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income less cash expenses, is forecast to increase $4.0 billion (3.6 percent) to $115.2 billion in 2020.

U.S. net farm income (NFI)-a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income-is forecast to increase $18.3 billion (21.7 percent) from 2019 to $102.7 billion in 2020.

While cash receipts from farm commodities are forecast to decline $15.2 billion (4.1 percent), direct government farm payments are expected to increase $14.6 billion (64.4 percent) because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments for COVID-19 relief in 2020.

Additionally, total production expenses-that are subtracted out in the calculation of net income-are projected to fall $7.3 billion (2.1 percent) in 2020, contributing to the growth in income.

If forecast changes are realized, NCFI would be 5.7 percent above its inflation-adjusted average calculated over the 2000-19 period, and NFI in 2020 would be 13.8 percent above its 2000-19 average.

Find additional information and analysis on the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Farm Sector Income and Finances topic page, reflecting data released September 2, 2020.

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