USDA Forecasts Record Corn Exports


WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20.

This increase is based mainly on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, which indicated higher food use for the early part of the marketing year than previously estimated. All wheat exports and imports are unchanged this month but there were offsetting by-class changes for both exports and imports. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are reduced 6 million bushels to 877 million, down 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel.

The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised 0.7 million tons to 1,073.1 million as higher beginning stocks offset lower global production, which remains at a record. Most of this month’s production decrease is for Argentina, where production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 18.0 million.

The lingering impacts of drought and local freeze damage have caused Argentina’s forecast yield to be the lowest in eight years. World consumption is increased 1.7 million tons to 752.7 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for China and the EU. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 190.8 million on higher exports for Russia and the EU more than offsetting lower Argentina exports. Increases in imports are led by China, Pakistan, and Turkey. China’s import pace continues to be robust and at 8.0 million tons, imports would be the largest since 1995/96. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons to 320.5 million but remain record high.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.507 billion bushels, down 215 million with a reduction in yield to 175.8 bushels per acre.

Corn exports are raised 325 million bushels to 2.650 billion, which if realized would be record high. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 75 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. With supply falling and use increasing, corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are down 465 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The corn price is raised 40 cents to $4.00 per bushel.

“Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast down 11.1 million tons to 1,447.8 million. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged use, and greater stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with reductions for Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and Moldova more than offsetting increases for South Africa and Laos. For Ukraine, the projected corn yield is lowered based on continued poor harvest results to date and if realized would be the lowest since 2012/13. ”

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include larger corn exports for the United States, Turkey, and South Africa, with mostly offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Russia. Corn imports are raised for China and South Korea, but lowered for the EU, Mexico, and Iran.

For China, while the National Development and Reform Commission has not made any public statements indicating additional corn import quota has been allocated, shipment data for exporting countries through early November indicates they will exceed their tariff rate quota level of 7.2 million tons. Barley exports are raised for the EU, with higher imports forecast for China. Total coarse grain imports for China are forecast to reach a record 26 million tons, just above the previous high of 25.7 million reached during 2014/15.

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are higher, mostly reflecting increases for China and South Africa that are partly offset by reductions for the EU and Russia. Global corn ending stocks, at 291.4 million tons, are down 9.0 million from last month.